1. Avoid get-rich-quick schemes
I've been around the block many times. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. After reading that common sense advice, many of you are probably thinking, “I know that. Why did you lead off with something this simple?”
Well, I've seen too many smart folks fall for get-rich-quick schemes that leave them poorer. Sometimes much poorer. And it’s heartbreaking to hear the tales.
Maybe it’s simply greediness we’re afraid of losing out on perceived riches. Maybe it’s fear—
If you ever come across something you believe might lead to quick riches, please let me review it with you. I promise I will provide you with an objective viewpoint.
2. Avoid trying to time the market
It sounds so simple. Buy low, sell high.
Or, here’s another take: “Buy when there’s blood in the streets.” It’s still bounced around in financial circles. Forbes credited the saying to Baron Rothschild, an 18th Century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family. Coincidently, or not
However, in both cases, these are platitudes that are best ignored, in my view. You see, we’re not wired to dive off a cliff and buy when everyone is selling. Instead, the temptation is to circle the wagons and play defense.
In reality, it’s much easier to buy when markets are heading higher. Euphoria can breed euphoria, which leads to a feeling of invincibility. It’s the “follow the crowd” mentality.
We eschew trying to pick a few winners, avoid trying to predict the future, (i.e.
Longer term, stocks have historically been an excellent vehicle to accumulate wealth, but certainly not the only way to accumulate wealth.
Crestmont Research produces a chart each year that reviews the annual 10-year total returns for the S&P 500 Index going back to 1909. These are rolling, 10-year periods; i.e., we are reviewing over one hundred 10-year periods.
Since 1909, there have been only four 10-year time frames that have generated negative returns. Want to hazard a guess as to when they may have occurred?
That’s right--the late 1930s and the end of the last decade. That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given extreme valuations that occurred in the late 1920s and late 1990s and early 2000s.
Oh, and the average annual return? It can vary by a considerable amount, but it averages 10%.
3. You must start somewhere, but start You can’t start too young.
Compounding and time is your friend. There is no better time than now. Being sensitive to how your investments are taxed will add additional ‘after-tax’ returns, which should be a priority.
4. Diversify
Both Mark Twain and Andrew Carnegie allegedly said, “Put all your eggs in one basket, and watch that basket closely.” Twain and Carnegie didn’t live in an age where the dissemination of information is almost instantaneous. Bad news comes in like a WWE smackdown on a stock. It’s the defensive end leveling the quarterback, and it can happen in seconds.
A fixed income component is critical for most folks. Being 100% diversified in a portfolio of stocks can leave you exposed to a market decline. It’s for someone with a very long-term time horizon. If you are nearing retirement, you may not have the time to recover in the event of a steep market decline.
Bonds, cash, and fixed income securities are not earning spectacular returns right now. However, they help anchor the portfolio. As the percentage of stocks decline in relation to cash/fixed income, the portfolio is likely to experience less volatility. You won’t see the peaks in a roaring bull market, but you’ll sleep better at night knowing that a sudden dip in the market is far less likely to take a big bite out of your investments.
5. Have a goal
Why are you saving? What motivates you to contribute to your savings on a consistent basis? Dream big and keep the goal in front of you!
Switching gears: New highs and the fundamentals
The S&P 500 Index finished the quarter at a record high. Notably, the closely followed gauge of 500 large U.S. stocks ran up its quarterly winning streak to eight consecutive quarters (WSJ, MarketWatch data).
It’s done so in the face of three devastating hurricanes—Harvey, Irma and Maria, dysfunction in Washington, unsettling news from North Korea, and gridlock
One common theme is a focus on
Currently, we’re in the midst of a synchronized global expansion, which has created a strong tailwind for earnings.
Moreover, interest rates remain near historic lows, and the Federal Reserve hasn’t been shy about signaling that any rate hikes are expected to come at a gradual pace.
If I had to concoct a recipe for
While North Korea’s quest for an ICBM that can strike the U.S. is very unsettling, short-term investors seem to be pricing in the unpredictability of the rogue regime. More importantly—speaking strictly from an investment perspective—investors aren’t anticipating a disruption in the economic cycle.
So, while you should be prepared for more troubling news, it simply isn’t affecting U.S. economic activity.
Tax Reform
“Don't tax you, don’t tax me,
He assisted with tax reform in 1986, and Congress is now considering the first major rewrite of the tax code since then.
The initiative that’s been proposed by the President and the Congressional Republican leadership is simply a blueprint. It must clear a number of hurdles before becoming law.
The framework is silent on how dividends and capital gains will be treated, and no mention has been made of the 3.8% surtax on investment income for high-income Americans.
The outline calls for special treatment for retirement accounts, but no other details were provided.
Therefore, anticipating and positioning for changes becomes very difficult given the uncertainty surrounding the bill.
Meanwhile, a 20% top corporate rate has been proposed, down from 35%. It’s roughly
But it’s early in the game and any discussion of the final points is purely speculative.